Sears: a dirt play all along?

As I've been saying.....

Old readers of this blog will not be surprised.

Reminder: more frequent updates on my thoughts can be found here.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Why real estate in San Diego is so expensive

This is one reason . Good old vernal pools, those puddles that emerge in the spring and bring life to rare species of plants, and yes, even shrimp. I think an average house in America's Finest City is over $700K these days. Granted, there are other reasons for expensive housing, but CEQA is one reason for sure.
Read more

Today's legal term: deed in lieu

For you beginners, what is a deed in lieu? It is shorthand, and if you add the last two words of the phrase, you ought to get the picture: "in foreclosure." In other words, the borrower is giving the property to the lender because it can't make the loan payments or refinance the property. These deals are often very heavily negotiated and can get ugly. Here's an example from Forbes, via The Real Estate Bloggers . It appears Harry Macklowe has reached a tentative deal to give back seven New York buildings he bought for $7 billion (no misprint) to his lender, Deutsche Bank, which holds the $5.8 billion mortgage. Is this deal part of the commercial credit crunch, an indicator that prices are plummeting, a sign that Macklowe overpaid, a combination of events or something else? I have an opinion but will sit on it for now.
Read more

And just to brighten your day a little more

We have another prediction in that the next tsunami in the market will be commercial real estate. This one comes from Thomas Barrack, the founder of Colony Capital via the WSJ's Deal Blog . (H/T Traffic Court .) Believe it or not, if Mr. Barrack is right I think this would be as bad or worse than the residential crisis. Why? The blog post says most of it well. If the loans mature and there are no buyers and no viable refinancing options, what next: RTC II? The Obama administration better be ready for the second half of its term when this all starts hitting the fan if not sooner. The best case I see against this is fundamentals. But, as we've seen lately, those can change on a dime. Lawyers, start dusting off some old books just in case he is right. The other savior I see is opportunistic investing. There's money out there that is waiting, patiently, for a bottom. I'm posting way too much for my day off, and a beautiful day at that. Latersville.
Read more