Surviving the market - take plenty of water!

Forbes has a good article out on the state of the market captioned Commercial Real Estate: Big Troubles, Small Bailout. The gist is that there is a lot of potential trouble facing the market and government will not be the solution.

My favorite quote from the story is this one:
California billionaire and Colony Capital Chief Executive Tom Barrack talked with Forbes in July about the struggle for survival in a downturn. "The object of the drill for everyone in commercial real estate--and this is everyone in the world--is just get to the other side of Death Valley. If you can make it to the other side of Death Valley, there's hope."
So how do you get to the other side of Death Valley? Plenty of water. Water in this real estate market means a different type of liquidity: cash or access to it. And that is easier said than done. There are people who levered a ton and may pay the price. There are companies that supposedly have the liquid and are sipping very very slowing from the canteen, reserving that cash for the right time. The hard part of the equation is lenders. TALF has not been the answer. If I were the guy in charge I would have jump started the commercial market by backstopping losses after a certain point, but I guess people smarter than me had other ideas or other ways to spend the money. (See here and here for opposing viewpoints.) I guess that's why I am not in DC.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Oops. I plain forgot.

I said some time ago that I would publish a review of the new Powerhouse Restaurant and Bar , located right beneath my Chicago office. And I never did. So here goes. I've had a couple of lunches and dinner since the place opened, so I can be candid. All the food I had ranged from very good to superb. The pork belly and chicken thigh appetizers were wonderful. The pork chops were juicy and tasty. The ribeye steak was perhaps the best I've ever had (and trust me, I have eaten a LOT of steak in my life). Forget the red meant and cholesterol and fat and all that stuff for one meal; just splurge and eat it. One of my dining companions said the cod was good but not superlative in his view. I was really too full to enjoy the sweet potato doughnuts. On the lunch side: I recommend the cheese quesadillas and the burger, which also has the tastiest bacon from Wisconsin. I'm getting hungry and I don't want to tempt myself...2008, after all! Service is always first rate, f
Read more

The DLB's Third Anniversary Post

Wow -- three years of blogging this Sunday.  Since I do not plan to write this weekend, I want to take a moment now to reflect on what the past three years have meant to me. First and foremost, blogging has been fun and educational. I truly believe that, thanks to reading more, writing more, and interacting with pros in the business I have become a better adviser to my clients. Yes, the technical lawyering and drafting and stuff is very important. But I have learned much by trying to put on the glasses of your client and thinking practically, while also keeping that lawyer hat on.  That said, I know I am not the business guy, but I also think I can give better advice while at least keeping in mind that side of the coin. You just do the best you can. I have also changed as a blogger, and hopefully for the better.  I get more news and posting from Twitter now than I do from the news or from other blogs. I do not know whether that is good or bad, but I know it is the reality of the situat
Read more