Blog because you like it

Just some personal thoughts posted elsewhere...Blog because you like it or consider it a good exercise in keeping current. Consider the additional writing, speaking and clients (or declined business) a fringe benefit. Thanks to the Law Blog for pointing this out.

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Lehman, AIG, and now Merrill? Think there are some busy lawyers?

First Barclay's walks from Lehman -- yet another suitor gone, and liquidationsville of some sort is being predicted. That is unless another angel comes to the table. AIG is looking to restructure itself, too -- they have rejected a private equity infusion and are apparently turning to the Fed . And now we are all reading that B of A and Merrill are looking to merge as well. If Lehman really goes bye-bye, I will miss it. They did a good job on every deal in which I was involved. But the market is what it is, and some say this is the way Bear should have ended too. In this case, though, Lehman's world's end would be with a bang, not a whimper. People are scared . As Matt Heaton put it over on ActiveRain, it is getting surreal . And will this panic the market tomorrow? I guess we'll see what Asia and Europe do tonight. I may have to cancel some meetings for tomorrow or at least keep an eye on the TV or radio. The dirt angle of this is huge, too, in my opinion...
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Is it me, or is this obvious?

Holland & Knight has some really good real estate lawyers. They do. And they give good advice to their clients. Here's some they gave recently: Banks are willing to work with commercial real estate developers on projects before trouble arises, and bankruptcy should not be part of the equation for either side. That’s the opinion of lawyers with Holland & Knight LLP, which discussed options for a down market with both groups during breakfast Thursday at the firm’s local headquarters. Don't get me wrong: I absolutely agree with this advice. I just find it utterly unfathomable that any troubled developer would file an 11 or a 7 without trying to negotiate a workout with the bank. And I'll bet a nickel that this is what the lawyers said or at least implied. The story, at least to me, just came off as overstating the obvious, and I'm confident that was not the complete thrust of what was going on at these meetings. Maybe I'm just not getting it -- it'...
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Cap rate spreads - making sense?

I really like this analysis by David Lynn posted at NREI. Why? Because it makes sense to me. At one point, the numbers were insane. People buying deals at a 4 cap with the unfounded expectation that the bubble would go on and on and on smelled of tulips in Rotterdam. And yes, the frost came. But look at the charts now, if you happen to be a chart person. Add in your risk premium and real estate is slowly starting to make sense again. Buy at a 10, sell at a 8 is the maxim I have mentioned here before. And as the caps reach reasonable levels, real estate's making sense again. That is the beauty of cycles. The thing is - it could still get better. But I agree with the analysis that smart money will start jumping in again with relatively "safe" deals - reasonable interest rates, LTVs and expectations.
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