The smartest guy in Chicago?


'I don't trust you guys'

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Coming down from the summit

I attended Bisnow's Second Annual Real Estate Summit at the InterContinental Hotel this morning. It was a packed house, with a lot of familiar faces and some great speakers, including Steve Fifield, Mike Reschke, Gerry Nudo and the keynote speaker, Neil Bluhm. (Hearing Bluhm speak is a big deal to many of the real estate cognoscenti, because he does not appear as frequently on the scene as a Sam Zell or a Donald Trump, even though he is also a billionaire and every bit as savvy.) What did I learn that I can pass on to you, along with my thoughts? (I am intentionally not attributing comments to any speaker here.)  Several panelists don't see any turnaround here in commercial real estate until at least 2013.  Lenders are dying to replaced paid off capital with new loans. I'm not seeing as much of that.  But I am seeing life that didn't exist before either.  I guess lenders and borrowers have different perspectives too. If a bank is asking for more money or capital, it ...
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Cap rate spreads - making sense?

I really like this analysis by David Lynn posted at NREI. Why? Because it makes sense to me. At one point, the numbers were insane. People buying deals at a 4 cap with the unfounded expectation that the bubble would go on and on and on smelled of tulips in Rotterdam. And yes, the frost came. But look at the charts now, if you happen to be a chart person. Add in your risk premium and real estate is slowly starting to make sense again. Buy at a 10, sell at a 8 is the maxim I have mentioned here before. And as the caps reach reasonable levels, real estate's making sense again. That is the beauty of cycles. The thing is - it could still get better. But I agree with the analysis that smart money will start jumping in again with relatively "safe" deals - reasonable interest rates, LTVs and expectations.
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Steve Jobs and introspection about oneself

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As the whole world knows, Steve Jobs died . And it wasn't a surprise. He'd been battling illness for years. He was the Thomas Edison of our era . But let's go beyond that. Why?  Because of this famous Stanford commencement speech:  Several quotes stick out the most, and they have been repeated ad infinitum all over the Internet and the news. I will repeat them anyway, taken from The Stanford Daily's text of the speech: You've got to find what you love. And that is as true for your work as it is for your lovers. Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking until you find it....
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