Ouch?

I'm gonna rely on you to read Traffic Court again to catch up on some not-so-great news on CMBS, including a huge spreads over Treasuries and a 48% rise in yield over swaps. Thoughts appear to be that even the highest-rated tranches may be affected and that more defaults are on the horizon. I don't know how upset I will be with a possible 4% default rate in real terms. We've been at historic lows, and 4% is not awful. But defaults can just create more panic in the market and that troubles me more. And, honestly, Fed intervention may or may not matter. It'll be interesting to see how this is going to be playing out.

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