New year, new beginnings, new deals
Welcome to 2008. From the dirt side this should be a very interesting year. Looking into my crystal ball, I see opportunity of a different nature this year on my plate in CRE.
I don't think I will see many "Wall Street Journal" deals (my term for transactions that make the national or major local media) on my plate this year, while I had a bunch of them last year. And that is all right by me. Lenders have money but are still being very skittish about how they want to lend it, a la the beginning of the decade. I think this means for me more smaller, under the radar deals, and probably ones I relish. By this I mean deals with "hair": distressed parties, crazy mezz loans or equity kickers, major due diligence problems -- nothing routine.
The one thing about those deals is that they still require a lot of work, meaning I have to bill about as much as I would on a larger deal. In other words, legal takes up a bigger chunk of the budget.
What else do I see? I'm having a hard time with it today. It may be a post-Rose Bowl haze (sorry, Illini fans -- I felt like the lone Trojan in town cheering on my school.) We can already predict that 2009 will be a tougher year for landlords as new office developments come on line, but I think that, unless tenants can hold off on space until then, 2008 will probably be a decent year for landlords. I'm noticing that retail is finally slowing down, at least in more marginal areas such as the exurbs. (The report that Wal-Mart is not building near my house, however, is wrong. That building is basically done. Now, whether that means a Sam's Club is on hold is another story....)
I think, however, that retail will still be good in the trendier neighborhoods that are more recession-proof. Tell me building is going to stop near downtown, and I'll be hard-pressed to believe you. Out here in passport country, however, may be a different story. I see so much dirt under development, together with empty new buildings to match it, that it is almost scary. The absorption could take forever. And my eyes are open; I'm also hoping market conditions are such that we'll be able to do a little more investing this year.
On the law firm front, I expect my business to grow moderately, which is just right for me. I'll tell you more about that as the year progresses. On a personal note, I want to get my golf handicap below 20 for the first time. I broke 90 late last season so there's a glimmer of hope. And of course we all want to lose weight. I saw that Jeff Brown (one of my favorite, must-read bloggers) did it last year (albeit on a smaller scale than I need to), but that was enough to inspire me. The elliptical is right next to me in the home office and I will be on it again today and every day I work from home.
All right, I have babbled enough for one morning. Enjoy the new year! Let's have some fun, do some deals and make some money!
I don't think I will see many "Wall Street Journal" deals (my term for transactions that make the national or major local media) on my plate this year, while I had a bunch of them last year. And that is all right by me. Lenders have money but are still being very skittish about how they want to lend it, a la the beginning of the decade. I think this means for me more smaller, under the radar deals, and probably ones I relish. By this I mean deals with "hair": distressed parties, crazy mezz loans or equity kickers, major due diligence problems -- nothing routine.
The one thing about those deals is that they still require a lot of work, meaning I have to bill about as much as I would on a larger deal. In other words, legal takes up a bigger chunk of the budget.
What else do I see? I'm having a hard time with it today. It may be a post-Rose Bowl haze (sorry, Illini fans -- I felt like the lone Trojan in town cheering on my school.) We can already predict that 2009 will be a tougher year for landlords as new office developments come on line, but I think that, unless tenants can hold off on space until then, 2008 will probably be a decent year for landlords. I'm noticing that retail is finally slowing down, at least in more marginal areas such as the exurbs. (The report that Wal-Mart is not building near my house, however, is wrong. That building is basically done. Now, whether that means a Sam's Club is on hold is another story....)
I think, however, that retail will still be good in the trendier neighborhoods that are more recession-proof. Tell me building is going to stop near downtown, and I'll be hard-pressed to believe you. Out here in passport country, however, may be a different story. I see so much dirt under development, together with empty new buildings to match it, that it is almost scary. The absorption could take forever. And my eyes are open; I'm also hoping market conditions are such that we'll be able to do a little more investing this year.
On the law firm front, I expect my business to grow moderately, which is just right for me. I'll tell you more about that as the year progresses. On a personal note, I want to get my golf handicap below 20 for the first time. I broke 90 late last season so there's a glimmer of hope. And of course we all want to lose weight. I saw that Jeff Brown (one of my favorite, must-read bloggers) did it last year (albeit on a smaller scale than I need to), but that was enough to inspire me. The elliptical is right next to me in the home office and I will be on it again today and every day I work from home.
All right, I have babbled enough for one morning. Enjoy the new year! Let's have some fun, do some deals and make some money!
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