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Showing posts from November, 2010

A quick thought on pop up stores

Pop up stores by national chains is supposedly the latest "phenomenon" in retail.  Of course, this has been going on in a smaller scale by small tenants and even national retailers such as Hickory Farms for many years.  The leases, being short term, are figured out and conformed and done.  But what about the long term? Some say this trend will continue over the long term.  I tend to agree.  Unfortunately I think it will depress prices unless lenders and buyers figure out a way to quantify and underwriter the pop ups, or pops enter into long term seasonal leases as a compromise, if landlords are willing to do so (and I would do so if the landlord had a cancellation right if it leases up the rest of the space in the mall -- there are all kinds of legal things we can do!)  In a way, it makes a lot of sense.  Cut down labor costs and dirt costs, concentrating on the couple of months that matter most. What do I think might also happen?  It will hurt the have nots.  Let's face

Want to make money? Get out of New York and DC!

This Globest.com piece might be the best I have read in a while.  Why?  Because it makes sense: “Everybody got so burned by the downturn that they want safety and liquidity,” said Jonathan Gray of Blackstone Real Estate Advisors, during New York University Schack Institute’s 43rd Annual Conference on Capital Markets in Real Estate. Partly because everybody is chasing those same few deals in New York City, Washington, DC and a few other key markets, that means more opportunities in properties that are high-quality yet impaired.... Bingo.  If you want to make good money, get out into the rest of the country where the rest of us are not seeing a recovery as much as others.  And the story is also telling as to the amount lenders are putting out there.  Even though everyone says lenders are lending, transaction volume is still down 50%, 60% and more from a few years ago (not that we should be at those volumes again anyway). And even if you get that deal, the LTVs and rates are not ex

A borrower hit from both sides

This was published in Crain's a week ago, but it bears writing about, however briefly: The long and short?  Mega Chicago restaurateur Phil Stefani guaranteed a $7 million construction loan used to renovate the building where his office is located, and which is owned in part by Stefani and others, including the well-known local developer Keith Lord..  The loan is past-due and the lender, Harris Bank, is pushing what he described as tough new terms for an extension, including new equity and prepaid interest. Why is the project under water? In large part, because its anchor tenant, Amcore Bank, went under.  But here is the real kicker.  Amcore was also the lender for the project!  When it was shut down by the FDIC, the feds rejected the lease at Stefani's building and handed over the loan and Amcore's operations to Harris. So...now Harris is putting on the squeeze because the lease of its predecessor in interest tanked the value of the property. You can read about the rest of

Holiday Inn -- a great F&B idea or another darn upgrade?

According to this WSJ article Holiday Inn has just completed " a sweeping, global overhaul that upgraded their hotels' bedding, signs, lobbies and showers, among other things, at an average cost to [franchisees] of $300,000 a property." In the industry this is called a PIP.  So now what? On to the next one?  The next idea is to incorporate breakfast buffets (a la Embassy Suites?), socialize the meal process and streamline food and beverage service to cut back on labor costs.  This will, however, be implemented gradually, starting with some test markets to see if the idea works.  Although I am not a frequent HI, I actually like this idea.  That said, while the whole social networking thing is an interesting concept, most lobbies I see aren't usually big hubs of activity unless there is free food.  Also, just because you finish one program does not mean you should not be on to the next idea to maintain relevance.  It is almost like the people who redesign the menus a

Completely OT: an immigration and tourist visa proposal

Okay, I'm taking a risk here, especially after the whole "I think Sarah Palin is a lousy speaker" debacle at ICSC.  And I know this has almost nothing to do with commercial real estate. But what the heck. I am a firm believer in common sense when it comes to immigration.  As the husband of a legal immigrant, I believe in open borders -- to an extent.  If someone, for instance, is most likely going to make a significant contribution to our country, why not let that person in? Take my wife, for instance.  She jumped through years and years of hoops to obtain a green card and her "blue passport" (meaning US citizenship).  Her marrying me had nothing to do with it.  And she is a most productive member of society, treating our children and paying oodles and gobs of taxes to boot.  I want the best and brightest of the world -- doctors, engineers, software pros, etc. -- to come here to the maximum extent possible.  We have some programs available to encourage this, and